I am hoping for the best, but fearing the worst. I just wrote a new piece on the stupidity of the Donbas Offensive, and I raise similar points to what you’re saying here. It’s a more conventional front and a less dynamic battlefield, which would seem to even the odds for Russia a bit. I also expect that terror is still on the table (and bringing in Captain Syria definitely doesn’t augur for anything otherwise). I hope the Ukrainians can attack behind the Russian lines. They’ve been very adept with indirect fire so far — I don’t see why that wouldn’t continue.

Russia has been willing to lose lots of men, but I suspect there are limits. Possibly political, but more likely practical: they leave themselves open to attack either from within or — I don’t know — maybe Finland, if they decide to stop the Finnish genocide in Karelia? I mean, Karelia was historically a Finnish land, and Finnish speakers have been forced to speak Russian all this time in a clear attempt to destroy their culture. By Russia’s logic, that’s more than enough reason for Finland to being a special military operation, and Russia’s army is in a weakened state.

https://giuseppeborgheseiii.medium.com/the-donbas-offensive-a-dumb-war-with-smart-bombs-61325b1d4e8f