Is There Any Real Limit to Russia’s Ability to Fight its War of Aggression?

By any rational understanding of the term, Russia long ago lost the “war” it started in Ukraine. What was expected to be a 3-day military operation is soon to stretch to three years. BBC and Mediazona’s well founded estimates place Russian KIA at 180K. Assuming a 3:1 ratio of wounded to those dead, the total losses are at a staggering 720K…and climbing. Open source analysts show Russia’s tank storage yards running dry. Inflation in Russia continues to rise.

And yet…

Russia’s clumsy, vicious, unprincipled assault shows no signs of letting up, for one obvious reason: Putin does not want it to, and there’s no countervailing force in Russian society anywhere remotely close to strong enough to tell him “no.” As long as he personally is willing for Russia to bear the cost, it will bear the cost. The average Russian (I’ve spoken to some) is bought in to the idea that NATO was just about to attack, and the below-average Russian (one from the provincial sticks) is used to getting the short (and sh**ty) end of the stick.

Putin doesn’t have to trade influence. He does not fear the rich, who are reminded often that they are unprotected from short trips out of open windows. There is simply no cost to him, not since the short-lived threat of a Prigozhin-led rebellion reached its predictable end.

It all has me wondering: there has to be some absolute limit to a country’s ability to wage war, doesn’t there? Is there a point at which Russia’s economy gets so choked, it can’t arm its soldiers enough to prevent Ukraine peeling them back? Are there losses after which Russia can’t continue its meatgrinder assaults? Is there any certainty of death great enough that Russian soldiers finally do the rational thing and run the other way? When, in essence, does the corpulent bully getting repeatedly stabbed by the smaller person he’s sitting on bleed out?

I hate that we even have to ask these questions. What a waste.

I hate what Russia has done to Ukraine, but I hate what Russia is doing to itself, too. It’s cynical beyond all measure to throw this many lives away. No geopolitical aim is worth cutting your own country off at the knees, even if you don’t feel the pain.

I believe that collapse is coming, even if I don’t know when or how. On that day, I hope Putin suffers an even worse fate than a Ceaușescu, Mussolini or other despot who ran the country he supposedly loved into the grave.