The Donbas Offensive is Exactly What I Said it Would Be, and That’s Bad for Russia

The fixed lines of the eastern front, then, seem like more of an even match than the logistically complicated reality of seizing Kiev. All Russia has to do is hammer away at the trenches and other fortifications of a less mobile opponent.

If Russia can gain ground steadily — not even quickly, but steadily — it can still “win” the war.

Ukraine has to hold Russian forces in the east long enough to join the EU or NATO or both.

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