The Russian military can be in disarray and still gaining some territory. That's my greater worry - a grinding war with no winners, WWI with smart bombs. Look at what they've had to do to Mariupol to "take" it. They've reduced it to rubble, and yet they're still taking heavy losses when they try to put boots on the ground. I fear the eastern front will look similar. Hopefully, western militaries can give Ukrainian artillery enough range to defend the skies and strike Russian artillery positions. This immoral war is about to get immoraler, and it's not clear what, if anything, will ever deter Putin. Will he be content to keep losing soldiers while committing war crimes cum genocide (which is a fair description for what the destruction of Mariupol or Kramatorsk constitutes) from behind a stable front? It's awful to contemplate, but the man has no compassion and might be willing to accept a lot just to keep punishing Russia's little slavic brothers for daring to dream of anything better than Russian serfdom.

Western reporting can be misleading, but also contains real information, no different than any source - even the Russian government. Their pronouncements are close to complete fiction, but there's still something to be learned from the bullshit they spew.

My perception, however, is most influenced by the work Oryx has been sharing on Twitter. The equipment losses paint a picture, and there's been a lot of good footage out of Ukraine showing what's actually happened to effect those losses.

And then there is the fact that Russia has in fact retreated. There seems to be little question about that. Little question, too, that they have taken staggering losses, unless you discount entirely the western intelligence estimates. I don't - they seem credible and well grounded. Even if you take the low end of the range, Russia screwed the pooch badly.