Well, this is a much more cogent response than your earlier tries. Maybe if you'd started here...

All good points. I stand by the assessment. Russia is a deeply wounded military at this point. The losses they've suffered appear to be catastrophic. They just won't admit it.

Ukraine sounds like they're taking a more worrisome number of losses (Zellenskyy's 50-60 KIA a day) to defend this slice of Donbas than I might have expected, and they haven't been as active east of Kharkiv as I was expecting either.

So sure, I could turn out to be wrong. I'm not ready to say I am / was wrong based on a month of mostly futile fighting by Russia. The fact that even with all that firepower they can't advance more than a kilometer here and a kilometer there just goes to show how devastating their losses from the first phase of the campaign were.

The wildcard is when the message travels back up the trunk to Moscow.